The Cliff-Hanger Simulation

This applet is designed to accompany the Cliff-Hanger Applet. With this applet, you are able to simulate running the Cliff-Hanger Applet one hundred, ten thousand, or one million times. It is designed to help show the probability that Homer will win or lose at a specific position or step on the cliff. By default, Homer has a 1/3 chance of stepping toward the edge, and a 2/3 chance of stepping away. You can change these probabilities in the text boxes in the applet. Below the applet is an explanation of the data in each column.



 
Position is determined by the tip of Homer's toe. He begins at position 0. Moving any farther forward, he will fall from the edge. Position 30 is not visible in this picture, but exists. If Homer makes it passed position 29 (position 30), he wins and is home free!
Data Explanation
  • Column 1: Position
  • Column 2: Number of Losses when Homer Hit this Position
  • Column 3: Fraction of Losses when Homer Hit this Position
  • Column 4: Number of Losses when this Position was the Highest that Homer Hit
  • Column 5: Fraction of Losses when this Position was the Highest that Homer Hit
Applet Source: CliffSolution.java, Written by Kristen Carvell

Copyrights

The image of Homer Simpson is Copyright 1996 Fox Broadcasting Company.
Cliff Idea and some text taken from:
Mosteller, Frederick, Fifty Challenging Problems in Probabiltiy: with solutions, New York: Dover Publications, Inc., 1965.
Send comments to:
mste@uiuc.edu