The Cliff-Hanger
Description
A long day hiking through the Grand Canyon has
discombobulated this tourist. Unsure of which way he is randomly stumbling, 1/3 of his steps are towards the edge of the cliff, while 2/3 of his steps are towards safety.
From where he stands, one step forward will send him tumbling down. What is the probability that he can escape unharmed?
Note:After using the simulation, try using an applet that perfoms a hundred, thousands, and even a million runs at once and that allows you to change the probability of stepping toward the edge.
Simulation
Applet Source: CliffApp.java, Written by Nicholas Exner.
References
Mosteller, Frederick, Fifty Challenging Problems in Probabiltiy: with solutions, New York: Dover Publications, Inc., 1965.
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Revised: 3/1/2005